Prediction market rulings changed state access, enforcement risk, and market-depth comparisons for sports-event contracts in 2026.
All Posts By: Jamie Winslow
Performance Metrics
A Sportsbook Can Be Up 99% of the Time and Still Miss Its Most Valuable Minutes
A sportsbook can be technically available for almost an entire match and still disappear at precisely the wrong moments. That is the weakness hidden inside conventional sportsbook uptime metrics: every minute is normally counted the same, even though betting activity is anything but evenly distributed. Recent US Open analysis puts numbers behind that problem. Instead […]
Betting Strategies
High Hold Rates and New Jersey Prop Bets
What high hold rates on props and parlays show about bettor cost, New Jersey handle data, and cautious market comparison.
Performance Metrics
Sportsbook Pricing Variance In NFL Week 1
Sportsbook Pricing Variance in NFL Week 1 showed market-specific vig gaps across moneylines, spreads, totals, and combo pricing.
Performance Metrics
Prop Bet Expansion: DraftKings and FanDuel Metrics
Prop bet expansion analysis of DraftKings and FanDuel market depth, hold, SGP growth, pricing variation, and integrity constraints.
Betting Strategies
Beyond Poisson: Modeling Over‑Dispersion and Rare Events
In sports analytics, traditional methods often fail to accurately model count data like goals and strikeouts. The Poisson distribution assumes the mean equals the variance, but this rarely happens in real life. This article explores the Poisson model’s limitations, focusing on over-dispersion and many zeros. We introduce two powerful alternatives: the negative binomial and the […]
Betting Strategies
In‑Play Modeling with Markov Chains: Possession, States, and Live Odds
In the fast world of football, knowing the match’s dynamics is key for good analysis. Old models often miss the mark because they don’t get the live action. That’s where the Markov chain comes in. It’s a statistical tool that breaks down a game into clear states, like when a team has the ball or […]
Data Techniques
Elo, But Better: Glicko, Margin‑of‑Victory, and Schedule Strength for Sharper Lines
Modern skill rating systems start with a key idea. A player’s or team’s true ability isn’t just one number. It’s better seen as a range of possibilities. This range often looks like a bell curve. The middle of the curve shows the most likely skill level. The width of the curve shows how unsure we […]
Analytical Tools
Advanced Excel Formulas for Sports Betting Analysis
Let’s cut through the noise. Sports betting became a national pastime in 2018. It has split into two camps. One side is the “Positive EV” quant nerds with their spreadsheets. The other is the “I’ve got a feeling” crowd relying on gut instinct and lucky socks. My mission is to make sure you’re in the […]
Analytical Tools
API Integration for Betting Analysis: Automated Data Collection
Let’s be brutally honest. Trying to track odds and lines manually is like day-trading with carrier pigeons. I’ve seen sharp operations struggle, lost in spreadsheets while others built smarter systems. The chaos ends when you treat information as an asset. This is where the modern sports betting API comes in. It’s not just another tech […]